2022 almost felt like a return to form from the previous two years—venture capital investment in edtech declined from its historic highs, students are back in the classroom, and large-scale government grants for learning loss seem like a distant memory.
However, the problems that were exacerbated (and highlighted) in the previous years have not gone away.
We saw headlines around falling test scores, looming teacher shortages, droves of students who seemed to have disappeared, and ineffective technology solutions
Despite the dire reports, we’re optimistic that 2023 is full of potential for radical transformation. We have been paying close attention to the dynamics of research in the edtech ecosystem and how it will impact education in the coming months and years.
With an eye toward the future, we predict that 2023 will be the breakout year for evidence in edtech.
Prediction: School systems will become savvier consumers
The pandemic proved that not all tech tools are created equal, nor will technology solve all of the problems in education. In 2023, schools will place a greater emphasis on proof of impact from edtech companies as they seek measurable improvement of academic performance and outcomes. Research will play a larger role in their purchasing decisions than it has in previous years as school leaders move away from relying on marketing hype or peer recommendations, and instead look to the data.
This will be twofold.
First, we’ve seen a monumental effort by nonprofits, for-profits, and governmental organizations to provide evidence and certifications for edtech tools that are accessible to educators. We’ve also seen a movement towards consolidating these efforts.
LearnPlatform, who has created their own clearinghouse to search for and vet edtech tools, was acquired by Instructure. In 2021, Digital Promise, The Center for Education Market Dynamics, Edtech Evidence Exchange, and Project Unicorn began a collaborative effort to revamp the Edsurge Product Index and provide educators better access to real-time product information, including third-party certifications and other product validations. We’ve also seen the recent merger of ISTE and ASCD.
Furthermore, What Works Clearinghouse provides certifications for edtech tools that meet ESSA I and II tiers of evidence, Common Sense keeps an extensive database of edtech tools and reviews. Internationally, there’s also the Edtech Hub, that consolidates research on edtech tools.
These tools for educators to research edtech tools are becoming more numerous and accessible. As these organizations find their niche in the ecosystem, we expect that the process for teachers and administrators searching for relevant and accessible research on edtech tools will improve. In 2023, we’ll see these tools become more integral for procurement at the central office and, perhaps more importantly, at the classroom level.
“Products with low usage and engagement will see licenses significantly reduced or licenses significantly reduced or contracts go non-renewed all together. ”
Second, as schools put more resources into technology, the scrutiny for tools they already own will increase. Edtech monitoring tools and data analysis will allow school systems to make data informed decisions once tools have been purchased and implemented. Securing an initial contract won’t guarantee a renewal.
Schools will be monitoring usage and engagement, and customer service, support, and professional development will be critical to ensuring tools are used with fidelity. Products with low usage and engagement will see licenses significantly reduced or contracts go non-renewed.
Prediction: Investment in research will increase
As school systems become savvier consumers and more reliant on technology, 2023 will also see greater levels of funding and investment devoted to education technology research from the public and private sectors.
Federal spending is set to boost education research, development, and dissemination by $40 million. At the same time, philanthropic leaders are also calling for and supporting more evidence based edtech research to help understand what works and why.
Moreover, the Office of Educational Technology refreshed their National Education Technology Plan in September, 2022. We’ll be watching how the priority of Responsible Use and Design—around creating accountability for emerging technologies’ effectiveness and equitable design, development and implementation—is actualized in the coming year.
Additionally, with the push to spin-off the National Center for Education Research into its own entity, we expect to see more focus on education technology research specifically—opposed to education research more broadly. This is a move that can create more standards around procurement and usage of edtech as well as more funding for edtech in the developmental stage.
In the private sector, the model du jour of venture capital investment—cut a big check to grow the user-base exponentially, operate at a loss to eliminate competitors, gain market dominance, then figure out how to make money—has never been an outsized part of the education venture capital model. Edtech venture capital tends to attract impact investors and, obviously, people that care deeply about students.
“Investors are already putting money into research and when the returns of that research are actualized, we think greater investment will follow.”
That said, market signals and the ability to navigate complex procurement conditions of K12 schools (or offer more creative business models) to get to outsized returns still dominate venture investment decision making. However, as procurement and purchasers become savvier, investors will follow, encouraging portfolio companies to invest in evidence as a market differentiator and to have a leg up in procurement.
What we predict is a greater focus by these investors in how they’re using research to both measure the student impact of the companies they fund and help these companies develop their products. Investors are already putting money into research and when the returns of that research are actualized, we think greater investment will follow.
Prediction: Edtech companies will focus more on research that improves product development
With more capital to conduct research in the space, edtech companies will feel less pressure to only use research as a way to categorically prove the impact of their product.
Most, if not all, edtech founders want to know with a high degree of certainty that their product will improve student outcomes if they are well implemented and used with fidelity. That is one of the benefits of conducting a randomized controlled trial or an experimental study. However, it’s extremely difficult to attempt this type of research if teachers find the product difficult to use or students just don’t like the platform.
The benefits of usability, feasibility, or implementation research become apparent to teachers and students every time they use the app. This research helps companies develop better products that teachers and students enjoy using. Additionally, it helps set them up to conduct more evaluative research in the future.
More and more products need research that is supremely practical and relevant for both product developers and school purchasers. Research that answers questions like:
How is the product best used?
What implementation conditions yield the best results?
How can the product be better streamlined to fit into the reality of a teacher's work flow?
What preexisting rigorous research is the product based on?
Is there a relationship between the use of the tool, and other meaningful student outcomes?
While this type of research may not reach the rigorous definitions for ESSA Tiers II or I reserved for randomized controlled trials and some quasi-experimental studies, they can qualify for Tier IV and III. They are more affordable to conduct, more practical to implement at the school level, and answer more pertinent questions in an environment of tech-overload and rapidly evolving technology products.
At Leanlab Education, we had a third-party researcher (Edtech Recharge) analyze 14 studies of seven edtech products we conducted in partnership with American public schools in 2021.
What we found is that, while edtech products do demonstrate potential in aiding student learning, more weight needs to be given to formative education technology research focused on improving products with features such as gamification and artificial intelligence and implementation protocols that support better training and improved user experiences, which are currently impeding student progress on many education technology solutions.
The Future
For schools, companies, and funders, 2023 will be a pivotal year, with a focus on the use of evidence to inform decision making. Schools will become savvier consumers, placing a greater emphasis on proof of impact from edtech companies and using data to make informed purchasing decisions.
Investment in education research and establishing edtech efficacy will also increase, with both federal spending and philanthropic leaders supporting this trend. Companies that prioritize research and evidence in their product development strategies are likely to create better products with faster product-market fit.
Overall, the use of evidence in edtech is expected to lead to more effective solutions for improving academic performance and outcomes. Only time will tell however. Until then, we’ll continue to focus on codesigning the future of edtech right now.